Most people who wager in sports are invariably fans of those sports. They might bet on soccer or baseball, but they will do this only because they are fans of the games and know how it works. But there is a downside to this, a good bettor who wants to win consistently cannot think like a fan, here the brain has to prevail not the heart.
When you put your first bet on sport here, you are likely to pick a match where one of your favorite team is playing, but if winning is your goal and if you are not doing this just for fun, then you will be better of picking a match where you are indifferent to the teams that are playing.
For a value bet on soccer, you have to have a clear understanding of probability. For example, in a coin toss, the probability of the coin landing on tail is 50%, you know that already, but say the bookie is offering odds of the coin landing on tail as 2.5 or 40%, then this is a value bet because the probability of winning is more than the odds on offer..
Of course when you bet on sport here, calculating the probability of the outcome is not so straight forward, but the key is to calculate your own odds even before you look at what any of the bookies are offering. The idea is to outthink the bookies in their own game. This is a great exercise that will hone your ability to find value bets and will help your transition from being a sports fan to a serious sports bettor.
Every week once a game is done, and the results are in, review your bet, if you have won then find out what you did right and if you have lost then find out which of your calculations or assumptions let you down. This will help you think straight even when you have suffered a loss and over time you will get over the preconceived ideas that you have about different teams. The finding of value bets will take time, in the meantime you will win some, you will lose some, don’t let that deter you from your strategy.